Golfweek - Adam Woodard 19h It pays to play well on the PGA Tour, just ask this weeks winner, Chris Kirk. February 28, 2023 12:30 pm ET. Justin Thomas enters play in the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard at Bay Hill Club & Lodge with +2500 odds to win after a 20th-place performance in The Genesis Invitational at Riviera CC February 16 - 19 in his last tournament.Thomas has one win, and an average finish of 20th, in his 20 events during the past year The Argentinian was right in the mix all week and tied for second. Hes third in weighted SG/approach over the past year, fourth in wSG/off the tee and 11th in par-5 scoring, per RickRunGood.com (weighted strokes-gained numbers factors in field strength). In his last five starts and first five tournaments on the PGA Tour in 2023, Rahm has three victories, a Top 3 and a T7 finish. Other top contenders in the 2023 Arnold Palmer field include McIlroy (19-2), Scheffler (11-1), Max Homa (19-1), Collin Morikawa (21-1), Justin Thomas (23-1), Xander Jon Rahm is the betting favorite this week at +700, just ahead of Rory McIlroy at +950 and Scottie Scheffler at +1000. I dont think he can make enough putts to contend. Woods has never won at Riviera and enters the week at 150/1. WebThe Arnold Palmer Invitational is set to take place this week from March 2-5, 2023, at the Bay Hill Golf Course. Prior to Hovland, Mayakoba has been a week for middle- to longshots. Four of the previous five champions have won with scores around 21- to 22-under par. Hes been electric at Bay Hill, teeing it up 11 times. MLB Odds: Braves 2B Ozzie Albies A Most Hits Longshot Candidate? He will in all likelihood lose strokes putting at Bay Hill this week as well. As for Tyrrell Hatton, hes quietly been playing phenomenally this season, with a T40 and T6 at the Genesis and Phoenix, respectively, showing up at the elevated events. 3 Jon Rahm once again earns the title of top betting favorite, with +750 odds-to-win. Again, Willy Z just brings out his best stuff whenever he has the best in the world around him, so betting him for a Top 10 which he did in 2021 only feels right. Shriners: Sungjae Im. In terms of pure value, youd be hard pressed to find a better bet on the board than the former Masters champion. The intangible Im looking for from players inside the arena at TPC Scottsdale is an ability to perform in a high pressure atmosphere, and Steele has displayed poise in big moments, finishing top-15 at the PGA Championship and THE PLAYERS last season. Hennessey, Golf Digest: Rory McIlroy (+110) over Jon Rahm (PointsBet) Rorys strokes-gained numbers at Bay Hill are insanehes gained nearly 75 strokes to the field in his eight appearances here. Golf News Written By John Haslbauer on February 28, 2023 For the third time in four weeks, all of the PGA TOURs best have assembled for an elevated event, Gilliam County. At Hes also top-30 in scoring on par 3s longer than 200 yards and par-4s over 500 yards, two huge buckets here at Bay Hill. Previous weeks: Fortinet Championship: Emiliano Grillo. Powers, Golf Digest: Chris Kirk (+600, DraftKings) Coming off his first win in eight years, Kirks confidence should be riding high. NEC Tournament Odds: Merrimack In A One-Horse Race? There are no weaknesses in his game, but perhaps this is a letdown spot and a chance for us to finally get some value on someone down the board (please)? Theres been an interesting trend at the API over the past few years. Powers, Golf Digest: Justin Thomas (20-1, Bet365) Im normally a if you can get JT at 20-1 or better, take it) guy, but Im just not loving what were seeing from him so far this season. Poston. PGA $1M Pitch & Putt: Because theres variance at work at Bay Hill given the complexity of the conditions and the wind, theres a chance to win big in the $1 million contest this week if you fall on the right side of the carnage. Shane Lowry of Ireland tees off on the 3rd hole during the continuation of Round Two on Day Three of the Hero Dubai Desert Classic at Emirates We shouldve had some equity in Chris Kirk but tried to get too cute. After spending time at FanSided and NBC Sports EDGE, McDonald joined CBS Sports as a golf writer in the spring of 2022. Sanderson Farms Championship: Sam Burns. The PGA Tour schedule is full of peaks and valleys. Elite drivers can separate themselves from the field on Bay Hill, as players like Bryson DeChambeau, Jason Day and Rory McIlroy have proven in recent years. Another surprise: Tony Finau, a 28-1 longshot, makes a strong run at the title. Before you lock in any 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational picks, make sure you check out the PGA Tour predictions and best bets from golf insider Patrick McDonald. Weve been up and down with our PGA Tour expert picks and best bets for these elevated events thus far but after a solid week at the Honda that was close to being great, were about to lock in with our Arnold Palmer Invitational picks. While Fowler didnt pull off the victory, he played quite well, outperforming his long odds to finish the tournament at 10 under, nine shots off Scottie Schefflers winning score and good enough for a T10, which means if you bet on him to finish in the top 10 as we did, you made a little money. Keegan Bradley a sleeper no more? 2022 Farmers Insurance Open: Longshot of the week As mentioned before, major winners can be found throughout the field this week. This playercould pull off a STUNNING victory and cash in HUGE for anyone who backs him! Hes appeared at this event each year since 2013, making the cut a perfect 10 times with four top-11 finishes over that stretch. Now lets dig into some longshots. Note: prices listed Something clearly clicked for him at Riviera, and this is the number to cash in on. follow. Course History and Comp Course History in difficult, major-like conditions are the foundation for my Arnold Palmer Invitational research this week. Kings vs. Thunder prediction and odds for Tuesday, February 28 (Fade OKC again), MLB rumors: Gavin Lux, Manny Machado, insider info on 2 recent free-agent signings, Arnold Palmer Invitational 2023 tee times, field, purse, odds and how to watch, LIV Golf Ratings Hold Steady at Horrid For Final Round of LIV Mayakoba, Honda Classic purse 2023: Payout by player, finishing position [Updated], Honda Classic live bets and odds ahead of Round 3, Its about time for a PGA-LPGA team event. Gehman is co-host of the First Cut Podcast and appears regularly on the Pat Mayo Experience golf podcasts. Anyone who follows McDonald's advice has been cashing in! READ MORE: Full sports betting coverage from The Philadelphia Inquirer. Tiger Woods, in his first official start since last years Open Championship, is at +15000, which are among the longest odds you will ever see attributed to the 15-time major champ. Were always looking for courses which wont require the winner to breach 20 under, and Bay Hill certainly qualifies. World No. We hate touts. Putnam tasted success at this event with a T7 finish in 2021 while in far worse form, so his combination of current form and past results in this event spell a high floor. However, Taylor Pendrith is a much more talented player than the gaudy odds would suggest. Mayo won the 2022 Fantasy Sports Writing Association Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year and is a finalist for three FSWA Awards in 2023 (Best Podcast, Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year). Lowry is coming off a good week in Palm Beach Gardens but hasnt been able to solve Bay Hill. WebThe 9-hole China Creek Golf Course in Arlington, OR is a municipal golf course that opened in 2003. McDonald takes a measured approach to his outright selections and is having a profitable 2022-23 season. Hes not backing down. Arnold Palmer Invitational pres. Farmers: Taylor Montgomery. Scroll down to see who we like this week at the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational. And while Fleetwood has yet to win in the U.S., he does boast 21 top-10 finishes in his career and 33% of those have come in Florida, including three at this very course. Houston Open: Jason Day. Hahn enters this week in the midst of an 8-event stretch in which hes gained strokes on approach. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports. The PGA Tour's best will be back at it this week at Bay Hill Club & Lodge near Orlando, Fla., for the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational. The faster the greens and harder the course the better chance Zalatoris has of victory. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images). The greatest party in golf is here this week as we continue our handicapping of 2023 WM Phoenix Open odds, AKA Wasted Management, AKA The Peoples Open at TPC Scottsdale. Everything with his game is clicking right now. Hes just six starts removed from gaining nearly six strokes to the field on approach in Houston, and if he has anywhere close to that result with his elite off-the-tee game, plus his prowess on grainy Bermuda greens, he can absolutely follow Chris Kirk as back-to-back Georgia Bulldog victories. Riley Hamel. So, Im looking to hone in on salary savers in inconsistent leading form who have a proven track record at Bay Hill. Skip to navigation. Gdula: Sungjae Im (-108) over Tyrrell Hatton (FanDuel) Both have played well at Bay Hill, and the long-term tee-to-green data favors Im, so thats where Im going. Touts are lame. He also suits the developing narrative set by Justin Rose last week, as a consistent veteran who is beginning to trend in 2023 (four consecutive top-25s) and in search of his first win since 2019. The 2022 U.S. Open begins on Thursday, June 16 at The Country Club in Brookline, Mass. Hes a major champion, a WGC winner (remember those?) Instead, McDonald is jumping on several severalunderdogs, including two MASSIVE longshots of well over 80-1! Stephen Hennessey, Golf Digest dep. Web2023 Honda Classic first-round leader odds, picks: Best bets and predictions for opening round from a golf expert. Top-10 Tony has four top-10 finishes in his past seven starts and seven top-20s in that span. Be that as it may, the putter has not stopped him from posting three top-30 finishes over his last five starts. The results make sense, considering a profile of elite ball striking from deficient putters has been the formula historically at this event across winners like Hideki Matsuyama, Kyle Stanley, and Kevin Stadler. All advice, including picks and predictions, is based on individual commentators opinions and not that of Minute Media or its related brands. TPC Scottsdale is a course that rewards elite ball-striking first and foremost. Lowry is built to grind out tough events, is good in the wind and loves himself a challenging course. Although his history at Bay Hill isnt extensive, he did finish T-24 here in 2020, his lone start. If its a loaded field and Will Zalatoris is betting, Im going to look for ways to get him on my card. In terms of DFS, its much more necessary this week than most to identify the right value players when constructing your lineups, as it will be tempting to afford exposure to the top contenders in this weeks field in your lineups. To put that into perspective, thats better than Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas and Collin Morikawa have ever recorded in an individual tournament. Caddie: Scottie Scheffler (9-1, DraftKings) He cant play well every week, and I definitely dont see him going back to back again. Obviously, we still have the 90/1 Luke List winner to fall back on. As the Florida swing continues, the PGA Tour heads to Bay Hill Club and Lodge in Orlando for the Arnold He hit another 25-1 shotat the Houston Open, taking Tony Finau to win. McIlroy vs. Scheffler, a loaded LPGA field and more to watch in golf this week. You read that correctly: Not only did he finish T4 last year, but he also won the Genesis Invitational in 2020. I love that he is now traveling to a course that will put less pressure on his putter, and I expect him to build upon his 13th-place finish last year. Best of luck if you choose to bet these PGA TOUR golf sleepers! Comp Course history at other desert courses like TPC Summerlin, Stadium Course, and The Summit Club have proven predictive, as have other risk-reward TPC layouts like TPC Sawgrass and TPC Twin Cities. The South Korean is extremely unlikely to beat this field and perhaps the more pragmatic move is to use him as a DFS option, a first-round leader dart or a top-20 play, but its hard to quit Benny An when his game is trending up. >. Ill always look Steeles way on a course with straightforward greens complexes that mitigate any edge from stronger putters, and instead put a premium on ball striking. Overall, Im building my player pool this week around elite ball strikers who are reliable scramblers around the green with proven history at this event or other comp courses. In his last start at the Genesis Invitational, List gained a career-best 11.4 strokes on Approach. Your favorite teams, topics, and players all on your favorite mobile devices. No one should expect to make money from the picks and predictions discussed on this website. I love to pounce on players that are coming off an MC in which they gained strokes in both ball-striking categories, which was the case for Matsuyama at Riviera. WebThe Echo Hills Golf Course is bordered on two sides by the town and on the other sides by farmland. Up to $1,000 in Bonus Bets. Complete 2023 College Basketball Conference Tournament Schedule, MGC Extends Deadline For Diversity, Kiosk Studies, Minnesota Lawmakers Advance HF 2000 In House Committee. Contending into the weekend at The Farmers in his previous start, Steele is in great form heading into a course hes shown consistent success at over his career. Yes, this is a tough field, but Lowry is not the type you write off in these spots. Ill always look Conners way at a ball-strikers course, as the Canadian ranks top-15 in both SG: OTT and SG: APP. 2023 Minute Media - All Rights Reserved. Hes made the cut in 10 straight starts and has four top-12 finishes. Christopher Powers, Golf Digest staff writer: Collin Morikawa (21-1, FanDuel) As much as Id love to make this a consensus Willy Z week, I have to stick with Morikawa, who came close for me at both Torrey and Riviera. Sara Perlman and Drew Dinsick are here with Bet the EDGE powered by PointsBet Monday-Friday to arm you with all of the actionable information you need to wager with confidence. Mayakoba: Thomas Detry. Breaking down the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational picks for this week at Bay Hill with our best bets, One and Done selection and more PGA Tour expert picks. RELATED: Want to become a better golf bettor? Its even more encouraging to see that Conners has found early success on these greens, gaining strokes putting in two of his first three appearances at this event. Its still safe to say he enters the Arnold Palmer Invitational as a longshot, albeit one with great potential. As a Florida resident, Bradley has naturally looked comfortable on the Florida Swing, with six top-30 finishes over his last seven starts in the state. Hes played this event four times and has yet to make the cut. PGA West has typically been a good place to bet longshots, so our golf analysts are taking some shots down the board for their favorite outright bets. Hennessey, Golf Digest: Jon Rahm (+650, DraftKings) Can you stop taking the fun out of outright golf betting, Jon Rahm? The PGA Tour's best will be back at it this week at Bay Hill Club & Lodge near Orlando, Fla., for the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational. Now its Rorys turn. https://golfweek.usatoday.com/lists/arnold-palmer-invitational-odds-sleeper-picks-tommy-fleetwood/, Mexico, Caribbean, Atlantic islands, Central America, Top 50 Classic Courses in Great Britain & Ireland, Top 50 Modern Courses in Great Britain & Ireland, PGA Tour approves radical schedule changes, reducing fields in elevated events and ending cuts, Drivers used by PGA Tour pros ranked in the top 10 in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. The PGA Tour schedule continues this week in Orlando, Florida for the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill Club and Lodge. For a deeper dive into the course, read my WM Phoenix Open preview. Another surprise: Tony Finau, a 28-1 longshot, makes a strong run at the title. That may not sound like much, but for this price, that combination of tee-to-green consistency and course history prowess make a great formula for a top-40 push. Top 100 Courses in the U.S.: GOLFs all-new 2022-23 ranking is here! That makes Scrambling and Bogey Avoidance of premium importance. Were getting value based on Rorys slow start on the West Coast, which was mainly short-game induced. At the British Open, four of Holliman's picks finished in the top eight, including Dustin Johnson (35-1) and Tommy Fleetwood (35-1). Up to $1,250 on Caesars. Brandon Gdula, FanDuel/numberFire managing editor: Xander Schauffele (24-1, FanDuel) Bay Hill is a demanding test overall, and Schauffele has an all-around game thats as good as anyones. Im sure hell make the cut, but I dont see him finishing top 10. Last weeks PGA TOUR golf sleepers article produced a contender in Ben Martin at longshots odds, and well set out to find more diamonds in the rough again as we shift focus to Phoenix. He hosts Inside Golf, a twice weekly podcast focused on the PGA Tour, betting, daily fantasy, golf course architecture, and interviews, as part of the BlueWire podcast network. Hes made it through the cut in each trip to TPC Scottsdale, highlighted by a T17 in 2021. This will be Ims eighth start in nine weeks, which is an unsustainable pace, and we already started to see the wheels come off last weekend at the Honda Classic. Then it just comes down to the putter. Most of the games elite players opted out of the Honda, but they are back in a big way for the API. Honda: Sungjae Im. These are the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational picks and best bets for what should be a great week at Bay Hill. For example, Kim was one of the most popular up-and-comers out of the gates in 2023. Thats remarkable and, while it has made his outright odds tough to stomach, I think that the Top 5 odds are more than palatable at this price given that hes done that at an 80% rate so far this season. Pat Mayo, DraftKings/Fantasy National, Mayo Media Network analyst: Will Zalatoris (22-1, DraftKings) The concerns over Zalatoris health appear to be over after his immaculate ball-striking performance at The Genesis two weeks back. Scheffler won last year at 5 under, beating Viktor Hovland, Tyrrell Hatton and Billy Horschel and by one stroke. Im no longer concerned about the injury as hes proven to look good recently, gaining 1.41 strokes tee-to-green over his last 20 rounds and coming up with a T4 at Riviera. The short game wont be an issue, and with the expected blustery conditions, Fleetwood is primed to notch his fourth top 10 at Bay Hill in seven starts. Click on odds anywhere below to bet now on the best available prices in your state. Bet with your head, not over it. For the third straight week, one of our experts has cashed a winner, the latest being Christopher Powers, who tipped Chris Kirk at 30-1 to win the Honda Classic. Sentry TOC: Xander Schauffele. After starting out the season on a high note, the two-time PGA Tour winner looked downright beat the past two weeks, failing to finish inside the top-40 in back-to-back weeks. Robby Shelton finished T21 as a heartbreaker for our Top 20 bet but we were strong in hitting Shane Lowry as a Top 10 and Lowry over Sungjae Im in a matchup. Mayo: Tom Kim (45-1, DraftKings) While hell likely be my pick to win next week, Kims odds have simply slipped too far for his upside this week. Kirk will take home the top Like comment Flip Covering the bases here, the one thing Ill say about Rahm is that his floor feels so extremely high that it feels wholly necessary to play him as a One and Done at one of the designated events. In terms of DFS, this has proven to be a sticky week for course history. Atlantic Sun Tournament Odds: Liberty The Clear-Cut Favorite, 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational Tournament Preview: Everything You Need To Know About Bay Hill. I like him to contend, and this number is probably higher than it should be with Schefflers recent win and the win here last year. Kim has already shown flashes of greatness in his career, so dont be afraid to back the 20-year-old at a number like this even in a dynamite field. Our outright panelwhich consists of a caddie reporting anonymously from the grounds at Bay Hill; Pat Mayo of DraftKings and FantasyNational.com; Brandon Gdula of numberFire/FanDuel; Rick Gehman of RickRunGood.com; Andy Lack of RRG and his Inside Golf Podcast; and your two authorsis all aboard the Willy Z train. >. RSM Classic: Brian Harman. 5 Second Chance Bets up to $50. Lets get to our PGA TOUR golf sleepers and longshots for DFS lineups and betting cards. RSM Classic: Davis Riley. Just a few weeks after going off at +2800 at the WM Phoenix Open another tournament with an elite field on a challenging course Kim is sitting at +5000 for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. With the Phoenix Open open complete, the stars of the PGA Tour head to Riviera Country Club in Los Angeles this week for the 2023 Genesis Invitational, where Tiger Woods will make his long-awaited return. We warned you guys after Scottie Schefflers win in Phoenix once this panel gets hot, we tend to run hot! Okay, I admit that it reminds me of the sixth at Hazeltine National, another Trent Jones product, but I don't think Wilson picked Trent's pocket on this one, as both courses were built about the same time, in the early 1960s. But the key to picking the best long shot any week is finding players whose odds are longer than you think they deserve to be. For now, well assume equal playing conditions for the full field when determining top value plays until more information becomes available on tee times and Thursday/Friday weather reports. Hoffman will assuredly not find himself on my outright card this week. Analyzing the golf odds to win the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational, with PGA Tour picks, Bradley finished alone in 2nd at Torrey Pines this season and tied for 20th a week later in Phoenix, so hes trending up despite missing the cut at Riviera. Standing just under 7,500 yards, Bay Hill presents similar challenges we come to expect in a major championship venue. As the elevated events have proven thus far in 2023, these loaded fields do not bode well for the outright prospects of longshots. To bet now on the Pat Mayo Experience golf podcasts we come to expect in a championship... A 28-1 longshot, makes a strong run at the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational back in major... Make the cut in 10 straight starts and has yet to make the cut will not! 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